# U.S. gasoline topped $4 per gallon as Oil rose above $105

*Economics. 71% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**WTI price stayed below a historic peak despite the surge**

On October 1, the Average U.S. gasoline price rose to $4 per gallon. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed past $105 per barrel. The Crude price, however, did not set a new all-time high.

During September, WTI Crude never fell to $80, remaining above that low threshold. Nevertheless, the price stayed below the historic peak.

The $4 per gallon gasoline Average coincided with WTI trading above $105 per barrel. Both figures reflected elevated energy costs. Yet the Crude price remained short of a record high.

September's Crude price stayed above $80, never reaching that low point. This durability contributed to the later surge past $105. The period concluded without a new all-time high for Oil

## Analysis

A gasoline price at $4 per gallon increases the expense of personal travel and can feed into broader consumer-price measures, putting pressure on household budgets.

Because gasoline prices track Crude Oil, the simultaneous rise in both metrics reinforces each other, yet the absence of a new Crude record may limit further upside for pump prices.

## What this was built from

- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?**: Yes, 93%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4000-or-mor)
- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?**: Yes, 71%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4400-or-mor)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?**: Yes, 79%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?**: No, 90%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)