# Iranian regime survived, Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted, Dome of the Rock intact

*World. 81% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States did not secure Iranian enriched uranium by year-end.**

The same day they reported that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had not returned to normal levels. In addition, the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem was reported to be intact.

The status of the holy shrine was verified on Thursday, November 12, when inspections concluded that the structure had not been destroyed. No damage was observed, and the site continued to function as a place of worship. The finding ended speculation about its fate during the current political cycle.

The United States' effort to acquire Iranian enriched uranium was evaluated on Friday, January 1. The result left the nuclear material in Iran's control.

Assessments of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were also finalized on Friday, January 1. Data showed that vessel movements remained below normal levels, indicating continued disruption. The situation persisted despite diplomatic overtures earlier in the year.

Final analysis of Iran's internal political stability was released on Friday, January 1. The review found that the regime had not collapsed before 2027. The conclusion reaffirmed the continuity of the government.

## Analysis

The survival of Iran's regime means that the country's regional influence and its confrontational posture toward rivals remain unchanged, limiting opportunities for a rapid shift in Middle East power balances. This continuity obliges neighboring states and external powers to maintain existing diplomatic and security calculations.

The ongoing disruption of Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to constrain the flow of oil and other commodities, sustaining higher freight costs and prompting ships to seek alternative routes. While the disruption does not yet constitute a full closure, it reinforces the strategic importance of the waterway and may encourage further naval presence or diplomatic pressure to secure safe passage.

The Dome of the Rock's intact condition removes a potential flashpoint that could have escalated Israeli-Palestinian tensions, but the underlying dispute over holy sites persists. Meanwhile, the United States' failure to obtain Iranian enriched uranium keeps the nuclear material under Iranian control, preserving existing non-proliferation concerns and limiting immediate leverage for the United States.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 81%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)
- **Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 12 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MattF/will-the-dome-of-the-rock-in-jerusa)
- **US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by)