# Israel struck four countries in 2026

*World. 75% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Israel-Iran ceasefire held through October, and Iran did not levy Hormuz transit fees.**

Israel carried out limited air strikes against four separate nations during 2026. The operations were confined to specific targets and avoided a broader escalation. At the same time, the cease-fire between Israel and Iran persisted through the end of October.

The strikes were dispersed across four countries, each receiving a single coordinated attack. The attacks focused on military installations linked to hostile groups. No civilian casualties were confirmed in the immediate aftermath.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire, first brokered earlier in the year, remained in effect until October 31. Both sides adhered to the terms despite sporadic diplomatic tensions. The truce prevented direct confrontations on their borders throughout the period.

Iran chose not to introduce transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of October. The decision kept shipping costs unchanged for the region's trade routes.

## Analysis

The limited scope of Israel's strikes, affecting only four countries, suggests a calculated use of force designed to achieve specific objectives without widening the conflict. By restraining the number of targets, Israel reduced the risk of triggering a broader regional war and kept diplomatic channels open for de-escalation.

The continuation of the Israel-Iran ceasefire through October provided a stable backdrop that limited direct military engagement between the two powers. This stability allowed both sides to manage their security concerns while avoiding a costly escalation that could draw in allies and further destabilize the region.

Iran's decision not to impose Hormuz transit fees maintained existing shipping costs and avoided adding economic pressure on maritime trade. The move signaled a willingness to keep a key economic corridor calm, supporting regional commerce and reducing another potential flashpoint in an already tense environment.

## What this was built from

- **How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?**: 4, 79%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026)
- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 75%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?**: No, 85%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)