# Iranian regime remained in power as Strait of Hormuz stayed blocked

*World. 92% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The regime held firm, Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control and the US did not lift the blockade.**

On Thursday 1 October, it was confirmed that the Iranian regime had not fallen by the end of September. The following day, on Wednesday 30 September, reports showed that Strait of Hormuz traffic had not returned to normal. The United States did not announce an end to the Iranian blockade by the September deadline.

The Iranian government continued to operate throughout September 2026. No change in leadership was recorded during that month. The persistence of the regime meant that existing maritime restrictions remained in place.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted as of 30 September. Vessels continued to face delays and rerouting. The lack of a return to normal flow signaled ongoing congestion in regional shipping lanes.

Kharg Island remained under Iranian control on 1 October. The Island, a key oil terminal, stayed within the regime's jurisdiction. At the same time, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not effectively closed, allowing some passage but without full operational capacity.

The United States did not issue a statement ending the Iranian blockade by the September deadline. The blockade's continuation kept pressure on regional trade routes.

## Analysis

The survival of the Iranian regime through September eliminates the prospect of a political transition that could alter maritime policies. With the same authorities in place, the regulatory environment governing shipping lanes remains unchanged, reinforcing the status quo of restrictions.

The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz hampers the flow of oil and bulk cargo, forcing carriers to seek longer routes or wait for clearance.

Kharg Island's ongoing control by Iran preserves the country's ability to manage a major export hub, sustaining its oil-shipping capacity despite external pressures. Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's partial operation means that while some traffic passes, the corridor does not function at full efficiency, limiting alternative routes for vessels avoiding the Hormuz bottleneck.

The United States' decision not to announce an end to the blockade indicates that diplomatic leverage over Iran remains limited.

## What this was built from

- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?**: No, 92%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-yU9NASst0n)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-CN0zOzRqE8)