# Iranian regime remained in power as September ended

*World. 82% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed abnormal and Bab el-Mandeb remained open, while Saudi Pipeline stayed shut.**

At the close of September 2026 the Middle East's key shipping chokepoints remained disrupted. The Iranian regime stayed in power. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed abnormal. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not effectively closed.

Iran's principal Oil hub on Kharg Island remained under Iranian control. No shift in regime authority over the Island's Oil facilities was recorded. The continued control kept Iran's export capacity intact.

The United States did not announce an end to the Iranian blockade by the end of September. The absence of a formal declaration left regional tensions unchanged. Diplomatic channels remained active without a public statement.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline had not restarted by September 30. The shutdown persisted, limiting Saudi domestic transport capacity. The prolonged outage sustained reliance on alternative routes.

Together, the abnormal Hormuz flow, the open Bab el-Mandeb, and the stalled Saudi Pipeline kept regional Oil logistics strained. Shipping companies reported adjustments to routes and schedules. The situation persisted into early October.

## Analysis

The survival of the Iranian regime means that Tehran retains full authority over its Oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island. This continuity allows Iran to maintain its existing export strategies, limiting any sudden shifts in supply that a regime change might cause.

Abnormal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz signals ongoing operational or security constraints that can slow the world's most vital Oil corridor. Since the Bab el-Mandeb remained open, vessels can still use the Red Sea route, but the combined bottlenecks raise overall shipping costs and transit times.

The United States' decision not to declare an end to the blockade reflects continuing diplomatic friction and a lack of consensus on how to de-escalate the situation. Without a formal announcement, regional actors must navigate an environment of uncertainty, which can dampen confidence in short-term trade planning.

The continued shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline adds another layer of logistical pressure, forcing crude to travel longer distances by sea or rail. Together with the Hormuz irregularities, this can tighten global Oil supply margins, though the exact impact depends on how long the disruptions last and whether alternative capacities can be mobilised.

## What this was built from

- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-september-30-20260629143335077)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-yU9NASst0n)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-CN0zOzRqE8)
- **Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?**: No, 82%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt)