# Iran retained control of Kharg Island as shipping lanes stayed open

*World. 94% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Iran retained control of Kharg Island while Strait of Hormuz traffic remained below normal levels.**

By the end of October, the main maritime routes in the Gulf and Red Sea stayed open, and Iran continued to hold its strategic islands. Strait of Hormuz traffic remained below normal levels, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not closed. Saudi and Israeli airspaces remained open, and Houthi forces neither entered Aden nor captured Perim Island.

Kharg Island stayed under Iranian control throughout October. The United States did not announce an end to the Iranian blockade by the month's close. No shift in control of the Island was reported.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz did not return to pre-conflict volumes by October 31. Vessels continued to navigate the waterway under heightened caution. The flow of oil and cargo remained constrained relative to earlier periods.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained operational, with no effective closure recorded by the end of the month. Saudi airspace stayed open to civilian and military flights. Israeli airspace likewise remained open, with no restrictions imposed.

Houthi forces did not advance into Aden before October's end. Perim Island stayed under Houthi control through the same period. No further territorial changes involving the Houthis were noted.

## Analysis

This retention limits the scope for external forces to disrupt Iranian oil shipments directly from the Island

The failure of Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal keeps a bottleneck on the world's most critical oil transit point, sustaining pressure on global supply chains and keeping price volatility elevated. Nations reliant on Gulf oil must continue to plan for alternate routing or strategic reserves.

The openness of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with unimpeded Saudi and Israeli airspace, sustains the flow of Red Sea commerce and air traffic, preventing a broader regional logistics crisis. These corridors remain vital for trade between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

The Houthis' inability to enter Aden and their continued control of Perim Island indicate a limited expansion of ground conflict, yet their hold on Perim preserves a strategic position at the mouth of the Red Sea. This status quo maintains a degree of uncertainty for maritime security but avoids a larger-scale escalation.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Brent Crude $103.67 as Kharg Island Odds Stay Near Zero](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-103-kharg-island-september-30-bull-120-bear-90/)
- [Timeline of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war)
- [Kharg Island — Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/Kharg_Island)
- [A Look at Iran's Kharg Island and Energy Sector - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://energynow.com/2026/08/a-look-at-irans-kharg-island-and-energy-sector-2/)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt)