# MLSTP won São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary election

*Politics. 54% certain. Monday, 28 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Łukasz Gibała secured Kraków mayoralty and Kerry-Lynne Findlay captured Abbotsford-Mission seat in late September 2026.**

The MLSTP secured the Parliamentary majority in São Tomé and Príncipe, Łukasz Gibała won the mayoralty of Kraków, and Kerry-Lynne Findlay captured the Abbotsford-Mission by-election. Each contest concluded within the last week of September.

The Parliamentary contest concluded on Monday, 28 September. Voters chose the MLSTP over the ADI. The result determined the composition of the national legislature.

In Kraków, the Mayoral race finished on Sunday, 27 September. Łukasz Gibała emerged victorious, defeating Monika Piątkowska, Michał Drewnicki and Grażyna Zofia Świat.

The Abbotsford-Mission by-election wrapped up on Saturday, 26 September. Kerry-Lynne Findlay won the seat, beating Pam Alexis and Lakhwinder Jhaj. The outcome adds to the governing party's representation in the region.

## Analysis

The MLSTP's Parliamentary win restores the party's dominance in São Tomé and Príncipe's legislature, allowing it to pursue its agenda without reliance on coalition partners. However, the balance of opposition forces remains uncertain, and policy implementation will depend on intra-party dynamics and external economic pressures.

Gibała's Mayoral victory in Kraków shifts the city's leadership away from the previous contenders, potentially altering municipal priorities such as urban development, public transport, and cultural funding. The new administration will need to navigate relationships with regional and national authorities, and its effectiveness will hinge on council composition and budget allocations.

Findlay's success in Abbotsford-Mission strengthens the governing party's foothold in the federal parliament, contributing to its overall seat count. While the win may bolster the party's legislative agenda, the narrow margin of by-elections often signals voter volatility, leaving future electoral contests open to change.

## What this was built from

- **Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner**: Kerry-Lynne Findlay, 54%; settles Saturday, 26 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/abbotsford-mission-by-election-winner)
- **Kraków Mayoral Election Winner**: Łukasz Gibała, 80%; settles Sunday, 27 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/krakow-mayoral-election-winner-20260807003532273)
- **São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner**: MLSTP, 97%; settles Monday, 28 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sao-tome-and-principe-parliamentary-election-winner)