# Netanyahu lost election as Israel struck five countries and kept Iran cease-fire

*World. 75% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The cease-fire with Iran held until October 31, while Israel limited its 2026 strikes to five nations.**

On Tuesday 10 November Israeli voters rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ending his bid for another term. At the same time Israel's 2026 military actions remained limited, with strikes carried out in five countries. The cease-fire with Iran persisted through October 31.

The election result was announced on Tuesday after vote counting concluded that Netanyahu did not secure a governing majority. His party failed to obtain enough seats to form a government. The loss signaled the end of his tenure as prime minister.

Israel conducted military operations in five different nations during 2026. This figure was lower than the twelve or more that had been discussed earlier.

The Israel-Iran cease-fire remained in force through Saturday 31 October. The agreement held despite ongoing regional tensions.

## Analysis

Netanyahu's defeat removes a long-standing figure from Israel's executive leadership, opening space for coalition negotiations among rival parties. The new alignment could reshape domestic policy priorities and Israel's approach to regional issues, but the exact composition of any governing bloc remains uncertain.

This restraint may reduce immediate retaliation risks, yet it also leaves open questions about how Israel will address perceived security threats that lie beyond the five identified targets.

The continuation of the cease-fire with Iran through the end of October provides a period of relative stability on that front, allowing both sides to avoid direct confrontation. However, the cease-fire's durability beyond that date is unclear, and any breakdown could quickly alter the regional security calculus.

## What this was built from

- **How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?**: 5, 78%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026)
- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 75%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?**: No, 82%; settles Tuesday, 10 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-netanyahu-win-the-next-electio)