# Yashar party won election, Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister

*Politics. 35% certain. Wednesday, 28 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Yashar party secured victory while Gadi Eizenkot took the premiership and Likud fell below twenty seats.**

Israel's 2026 parliamentary election concluded on Wednesday with the Yashar party emerging as the largest faction. The victory positioned former chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot to assume the premiership. The long-dominant Likud party fell to fewer than twenty seats, a sharp decline from previous terms.

Yashar's win provided the party with a clear mandate to shape the new coalition. With Likud reduced to under twenty seats, its capacity to command key ministries diminished significantly.

Yashar's triumph displaced Likud from its long-standing role as the leading party. The new balance of power places the former military chief at the head of the government. Likud's representation of fewer than twenty seats marks its smallest parliamentary presence in recent cycles.

The Yashar party now leads the 26th Knesset. Gadi Eizenkot has been designated the Prime Minister by the election results. Likud holds fewer than twenty seats in the parliament.

## Analysis

Yashar's ascendancy suggests voters favored a platform distinct from the traditional right-wing agenda, potentially opening space for new policy priorities, especially in security and diplomatic matters.

Gadi Eizenkot's elevation to Prime Minister brings a figure with extensive defense experience to the civilian leadership role. His background may translate into a more assertive security posture, but it also raises questions about how he will manage civilian ministries and balance coalition demands, given the fragmented nature of the Knesset after the vote.

Likud's reduction to fewer than twenty seats curtails its Legislative leverage and forces it into a minority opposition stance. The party will need to reassess its strategy, possibly seeking alliances with other right-leaning factions or redefining its platform to remain relevant, while the overall political equilibrium remains uncertain as coalition negotiations progress.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2022 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election)
- [Predictmarketcap](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- [Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election)

## What this was built from

- **Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?**: Gadi Eizenkot, 50%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election)
- **Israeli Legislative Election Winner**: Yashar, 70%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner)
- **Israel Election: Likud # of seats?**: <20, 35%; settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats)