# Iranian regime remained in power

*World. 58% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States also failed to obtain Iranian enriched uranium and the blockade remained in place.**

The Iranian regime stayed in power as the year ended, and the United States did not secure any Iranian enriched uranium. The U.S. also kept the blockade on Iran in place through December 31, 2026. No change occurred in the political or nuclear standoff.

The government in Tehran continued its authority without interruption. No overthrow or transition took place before 2027. The political structure remained unchanged.

American efforts to acquire Iranian enriched uranium ended without success. By the last day of 2026 the United States had not obtained any such material. The enrichment stockpile stayed outside U.S. control.

The United States maintained its blockade of Iranian trade and shipping. The embargo persisted through the end of 2026. No announcement ended the restriction.

## Analysis

The persistence of the Iranian regime means that Tehran's strategic calculations remain anchored in existing policy frameworks, limiting any abrupt shifts in regional behavior. Without a regime change, diplomatic channels that rely on internal political reform remain unavailable, keeping negotiations on a status quo baseline.

The United States' inability to obtain enriched uranium eliminates a potential escalation point, but it also signals that covert acquisition attempts have not altered the material balance. The continued absence of U.S. control over Iran's enrichment stockpile sustains the underlying nuclear tension that drives regional security concerns.

The ongoing blockade maintains economic pressure on Iran, reinforcing the leverage the United States seeks in future talks. However, the lack of a formal end to the embargo suggests that any diplomatic breakthrough will have to address both the nuclear and economic dimensions concurrently, a challenge that may shape negotiations in the coming months.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R40094)
- [The status of Iran's uranium enrichment programme](https://reuters.com/world/middle-east/status-irans-uranium-enrichment-programme-2026-10-07)
- [2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [Mike Waltz: US offered to sell Iran uranium for civilian programme | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/27/mike-waltz-us-offered-to-sell-iran-uranium-for-civilian-programme)

## What this was built from

- **Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026)
- **US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by)
- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?**: No, 58%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)