# Iran struck a U.S. base in September

*World. 83% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**It also rejected ending uranium enrichment and introduced navigation fees in the Strait of Hormuz.**

Iran directly struck a U.S. military base in September 2026. The same month, Tehran refused to end its uranium enrichment program by the September 30 deadline. It also introduced new navigation fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on 1 October.

The attack targeted a base used by U.S. forces in the region. The event was confirmed by authorities on 1 October after reviewing intelligence.

Iran had been under pressure to halt enrichment by the end of September. On 30 September, the decision to continue was logged. The refusal kept the nuclear program active beyond the requested cutoff.

The navigation fee policy was announced on 1 October. It applies to all commercial traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The measure adds a monetary cost to an already contested waterway.

## Analysis

The direct strike on a U.S. installation raises the risk of further military escalation between Tehran and Washington. Both sides now face heightened pressure to respond, and any retaliation could broaden the conflict beyond the immediate area.

By refusing to end uranium enrichment, Iran has stalled progress on any nuclear negotiation framework that required a cessation by the end of September. This stance may prompt additional diplomatic isolation or economic sanctions, complicating the regional non-proliferation agenda.

The new navigation fees in the Strait of Hormuz introduce a financial lever that could affect global shipping and oil transport. While the fees increase revenue for Iran, they may also provoke pushback from nations reliant on the waterway, potentially leading to disputes over maritime rights and routing.

## What this was built from

- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?**: Yes, 83%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-iran-directly-strike-a-us-mili)
- **Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-september-30-20260709004922353)