# Iran struck US base in September, abandoned Hormuz fee plans

*World. 79% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Iran also scrapped Hormuz fee plans and an Oman pact, while leaving Ukraine untouched.**

Iran launched a direct strike on a United States military base in September 2026. The attack represented the first overt assault on US forces by Tehran in the region. At the same time, Tehran abandoned plans to levy Hormuz transit fees, to reach a Hormuz agreement with Oman, and to extend operations against Ukraine. The Iranian leadership remained unchanged through the period.

Iranian forces announced the strike as a response to regional tensions.

Earlier expectations that Iran would impose fees on ships transiting the Hormuz Strait did not materialize by the end of September. Tehran announced that no Hormuz fees would be charged. The decision was confirmed on 1 October.

Negotiations with Oman over a Hormuz agreement also failed to produce a pact by the end of September. No formal Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement was signed. The outcome was confirmed on 1 October.

Iran did not extend its military campaign to Ukraine during the same period. No targeting of Ukrainian interests was reported by the end of September. The Iranian leadership remained the same, with no change recorded through 1 October.

## Analysis

The direct strike on a US base represents a significant escalation in the already volatile relationship between Tehran and Washington. By moving from proxy activities to a direct attack, Iran has increased the risk of a broader military response from the United States, which could draw in regional allies and complicate diplomatic efforts.

The failure to secure an agreement with Oman leaves the strategic strait without a formalized de-escalation framework. This gap may heighten concerns among commercial vessels and naval forces operating in the area, potentially prompting other regional powers to reassess their own security postures.

The unchanged leadership and the decision not to target Ukraine indicate continuity in Iran's core strategic priorities. While Tehran is willing to confront the United States directly, it appears to be avoiding a broader expansion of its military activities, thereby limiting the scope of its confrontations for the moment.

## What this was built from

- **Iran leadership change by September 30?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: No, 79%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-ukraine-byptptpt-20260727234956916)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?**: Yes, 87%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-iran-directly-strike-a-us-mili)