# Incumbents held top posts in Russia, US, South Korea, FIFA, Brazil

*Politics. 82% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Lee Jae-myung, Gianni Infantino and Alexandre de Moraes all stayed in office through 2026.**

Vladimir Putin continued as president of Russia, and Donald Trump remained president of the United States. In South Korea, Lee Jae-myung kept the presidency, while Gianni Infantino stayed on as FIFA President. Alexandre de Moraes also retained his seat on Brazil's Supreme Court.

The Russian constitutional schedule showed no transition before the end of the year, allowing Putin to finish his term. Domestic reports noted the continuation of his foreign-policy agenda. In the United States, the election calendar did not produce a successor, leaving Trump in office until the next electoral cycle. His administration proceeded with its existing cabinet appointments.

South Korea's political calendar confirmed Lee Jae-myung's term would run its full course, with no early resignation or removal. Legislative sessions proceeded under his leadership. Gianni Infantino's mandate at FIFA also extended through the calendar year, with the organization maintaining its current governance structure. Upcoming tournaments were planned under his oversight.

Brazil's judiciary recorded that Alexandre de Moraes remained on the Supreme Court bench without interruption. No impeachment or retirement proceedings were initiated against him. His presence ensured continuity in the Court's docket through the year. The Court continued to hear high-profile cases with him participating.

The unchanged lineup meant that policy directions set in previous years persisted without alteration. International engagements proceeded with the same representatives. The calendar year closed without any of the listed leaders being removed from office.

## Analysis

With no leadership change, existing diplomatic strategies and domestic agendas are likely to persist, reducing short-term uncertainty for allies and rivals alike.

In South Korea, Lee Jae-myung's uninterrupted term allows his government to pursue its current economic and security initiatives without the disruption of an election cycle. Likewise, Infantino's ongoing presidency at FIFA means that the organization's reform agenda and tournament planning will follow the same trajectory established in previous years.

Alexandre de Moraes' sustained presence on Brazil's Supreme Court contributes to judicial continuity, which can affect the handling of high-profile corruption and political cases. The Court's ability to maintain its docket without a reshuffle may influence the pace and direction of legal rulings that impact national politics.

Across these varied arenas, the absence of turnover creates a predictable environment but also limits opportunities for systemic change. While continuity can aid long-term planning, it may also entrench existing power structures, leaving the scope for reform dependent on internal dynamics rather than electoral or appointment cycles.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [When Will Vladimir Putin's Term End | GeoGazet](https://geogazet.com/people/putin/when-will-vladimir-putin-s-term-end)
- [Putin's 2.55% exit price is fair. Parliament is not the tail risk | Noah Intelligence](https://noah-news.com/putins-2-55-percent-exit-price-is-fair-parliament-is-not-the-tail-risk/)
- [Statement by President of Russia Vladimir Putin • President of Russia](http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/80960)
- [Putin out as President of Russia by… Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlate](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/putin-out-before-2027/)

## What this was built from

- **Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027)
- **Trump out as President before 2027?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027)
- **Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/gianni-infantino-out-as-fifa-president-by-december-31-20260706195547871)
- **Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)
- **Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?**: No, 82%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice)