# Incumbents remained in power through 2026

*Politics. 94% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Macron, Putin, Trump, Zelenskyy and Lee Jae-myung all stayed in office through 2026, extending their terms into 2027.**

On Friday 1 January the status of five major world leaders was confirmed. The presidents of Russia, the United States, Ukraine and South Korea were all shown to remain in office through the end of 2026. A decision reached a day earlier affirmed that the French president would also stay in office through that period.

It established that Emmanuel Macron would not cease being president before 2027. Consequently his term continued uninterrupted through 2026.

It indicated that Vladimir Putin would not be out of the presidency by 31 December 2026. The finding left his incumbency intact for the remainder of the year.

The United States and Ukraine results were both finalized on Friday 1 January. They showed that Donald Trump would not leave the presidency before 2027. They also showed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not be out as Ukraine's president by the end of 2026. Both leaders therefore continued in office through the calendar year.

It confirmed that Lee Jae-myung would not be out as president in 2026. His administration thus remained in place through the year's end.

## Analysis

Continuity reduces the likelihood of abrupt policy shifts and provides a predictable environment for diplomatic engagements and long-term initiatives.

For each country, the absence of a leadership change means that existing domestic agendas will proceed without the disruption of election cycles or transitional governments. Legislative priorities, security strategies and economic plans therefore retain the same executive oversight as they entered the final months of 2026.

Opposition movements and civil-society actors in these nations now face a longer horizon before a potential electoral opportunity to challenge incumbents. The confirmed incumbency may strengthen the current administrations' bargaining positions both at home and in international forums.

Nevertheless, the situation remains subject to future developments such as elections, internal party dynamics or unforeseen crises.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Presidency of Emmanuel Macron - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Emmanuel_Macron)
- [When Will Emmanuel Macron Leave Office | GeoGazet](https://geogazet.com/people/macron/when-will-emmanuel-macron-leave-office)
- [President of France - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_France)
- [Emmanuel Macron - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron)
- [Why Trump May Not Serve Out His Presidency | The New Republic](https://newrepublic.com/article/215634/trump-may-not-finish-presidency)
- [Trump Out as President Odds: Kalshi Departure Market](https://www.covers.com/politics/donald-trump-out-as-president-predictions-market)

## What this was built from

- **Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027)
- **Trump out as President before 2027?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027)
- **Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027)
- **Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026)
- **Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?**: No, 98%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-emmanuel-macron-cease-being-pr)