# Fed kept rates steady as Mexico held benchmark, US-China talks stalled

*Economics. 74% certain. Thursday, 24 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Fed kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, Mexico held its benchmark on Thursday, and the United States and China announced no new tariff cuts.**

The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, rejecting a 25-basis-point cut. The Bank of Mexico also maintained its benchmark rate on Thursday, with no adjustment. Meanwhile, the United States and China did not announce any reciprocal tariff reductions by Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting took place on September 23. After deliberation, the committee left the target rate unchanged. The decision left the policy rate at the level set in the prior meeting.

The Bank of Mexico released its interest-rate decision on September 24. The central Bank chose to keep its benchmark unchanged. The rate remained at the level established in the earlier period.

United States and China concluded their trade discussions on September 22. The two governments did not announce any new reciprocal tariff reductions. Existing tariff schedules continued unchanged through the end of September.

## Analysis

Holding rates steady signals that both the Fed and the Bank of Mexico view current monetary conditions as sufficient to meet their inflation and growth objectives, at least in the short term.

The lack of new tariff cuts between the United States and China indicates that trade tensions remain unresolved, limiting the potential for immediate reductions in import costs or supply-chain adjustments.

Future policy moves now depend on forthcoming data releases and diplomatic progress. If inflation or growth indicators shift, central banks may reconsider their stance, and any breakthrough in US-China talks could alter the trade environment. Until such developments occur, the current steady-state posture will likely persist.

## What this was built from

- **Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 23 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/subhamsingh/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-25-bps-at-N6AnPp8uC8)
- **Bank of Mexico interest rate decision — September 2026**: No change, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242744/bank-of-mexico-interest-rate-decision-september-2026)
- **🇺🇸🇨🇳 Will the U.S. and China announce reciprocal tariff cuts by September 24?**: No, 74%; settles Tuesday, 22 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MAKER/-will-the-us-and-china-announce-rec)