# Fed raised rates twice in 2026, ending year above 4.5%

*Economics. 56% certain. Friday, 29 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Federal Reserve delivered two 25-bp hikes in October and December, leaving the policy rate at least 4.5%.**

The Federal Reserve raised its target rate twice during 2026. Each move added 25 basis points, first in October and again in December. The cumulative increase lifted the policy rate to at least 4.5 percent by year-end. No rate cuts were recorded during the year.

In October, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point increase.

The December meeting also resulted in a 25-basis-point rise. Controllers cited persistent inflationary risks as justification. This second hike completed the 2026 tightening cycle.

The board did not implement any rate reductions in 2026. Zero cuts were recorded, and no emergency cut occurred before 2027. The absence of rapid-response actions signaled a steady policy path.

At the close of 2026, the target rate stood at 4.5 percent or higher. The lower bound of the policy corridor remained above 0.5 percent, ruling out a near-zero floor before 2027. Inflation stayed below Double-digit levels within six months after Chairman Powell's departure.

## Analysis

The two modest hikes kept the policy stance restrictive, signalling that the Fed still judged inflation pressures warranted a higher cost of borrowing. Keeping rates above 4.5% extends that pressure into the broader economy.

Higher rates raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans and business credit, which can dampen consumer spending and investment. The tighter financing environment may slow growth but also helps anchor price expectations.

With no cuts and no emergency move in 2026, the central bank showed confidence in its current stance, yet the absence of a near-zero lower bound limits how far it can ease if conditions deteriorate. That constraint could shape future decisions should economic activity weaken.

While Double-digit inflation did not reappear after Powell's exit, the uncertainty surrounding future price pressures means policy flexibility remains a key concern.

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in October?**: 25 bps increase, 64%; settles Thursday, 29 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537)
- **Fed Decision in December?**: 25 bps increase, 69%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632)
- **How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?**: 2 (50 bps), 56%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369)
- **How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?**: 0 (0 bps), 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)
- **What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?**: ≥ 4.5%, 60%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026)
- **Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 29 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?**: No, 98%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027)
- **Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027)
- **Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?**: No, 97%; settles Monday, 23 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JussiVilleHeiskanen/double-digit-us-inflation-within-si)