# Fed finished 2026 with policy rate at 4.25% after two hikes

*Economics. 60% certain. Friday, 29 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The central bank raised rates twice, avoided any cuts, and left the 10-year Treasury yield above 3.9%.**

The Federal Reserve raised its target rate twice in 2026, each time by a quarter point. The moves followed a hike-pause-hike sequence, with a pause after the first increase. No rate cuts or emergency reductions were implemented at any point during the year. The policy rate finished 2026 at 4.25 percent and stayed unchanged in the January meeting.

The Fed's target range upper bound reached 4.25 percent during the year, confirming the higher end of policy. Throughout 2026 the central bank recorded zero cuts, keeping the rate unchanged aside from the two hikes. Meanwhile the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield never fell below 3.9 percent before 2027.

In September the committee voted for a 25-basis-point increase, moving the range to 3.75-4.00 percent. The subsequent October meeting did not produce a cut, maintaining the higher level. The decision reinforced the Fed's stance of gradual tightening.

December's meeting delivered another 25-basis-point hike, pushing the upper bound of the target range to 4.25 percent. The Fed left the lower bound unchanged at 4.0 percent.

The January 2027 meeting left the policy rate unchanged, confirming the 4.25-percent upper bound. No emergency rate cut was enacted before 2027. The Fed's actions completed a year of modest tightening without any reductions.

## Analysis

Two modest 25-basis-point hikes signaled that the Federal Reserve judged inflation to be persistent but not severe enough to justify aggressive tightening, opting for a measured pace.

The absence of any cuts or emergency moves indicated the central bank believed it retained sufficient policy space to address risks without lowering rates, which in turn kept borrowing costs relatively stable.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
- [What’s The Fed’s Next Move? | J.P. Morgan Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)
- [Fed predictions for 2026: Will a rate hike happen by the end of the year?](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html)
- [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
- [Fed Rate Forecast 2026: How Many Cuts? When Will Rates Go Down? │ PrimeRates](https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/)

## What this was built from

- **How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?**: 0 (0 bps), 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026)
- **What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?**: 4.25%, 66%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026)
- **Another Fed rate hike in 2026?**: Yes, 78%; settles Thursday, 10 December 2026 (polymarket, manifold). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026)
- **Fed Decision in December?**: 25 bps increase, 72%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632)
- **How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?**: 2 (50 bps), 65%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369)
- **Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 29 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **Fed Decision in January?**: No change, 65%; settles Thursday, 28 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502)
- **Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)**: Hike–Pause–Hike, 60%; settles Wednesday, 9 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec)
- **Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?**: No, 99%; settles Friday, 29 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629)
- **Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?**: Yes, 77%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027)
- **Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?**: No, 96%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?**: No, 74%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027)
- **Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?**: No, 88%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027)