# U.S. did not invade or strike Cuba in 2026

*World. 91% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States refrained from military action against Cuba, and the Cuban government remained in power throughout 2026.**

On Friday, 1 January 2027 the record showed that the United States neither launched an invasion of Cuba nor carried out a military strike against it during 2026. The Cuban government also stayed in power throughout the year.

Throughout 2026 no U.S. forces entered Cuban territory. The United States did not conduct any ground operation on the island. The absence of an invasion was logged on Friday, 1 January.

No American missile or aircraft attack hit Cuban targets before 31 December 2026. The United States did not carry out any aerial or naval strike against the island.

The Cuban administration completed the calendar year without being displaced. No coup or external removal of the government occurred in 2026. The continuation of the regime was entered on Friday, 1 January.

## Analysis

By avoiding a direct military operation, the United States sidestepped the legal and diplomatic repercussions that an invasion would have generated, keeping bilateral tensions at a lower level and preserving the status quo in the Caribbean region.

The persistence of the Cuban regime means that its existing political and economic policies continued unchanged, allowing the government to maintain its internal control and its external relationships without the disruption of regime change.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Cuba Invasion: U.S. Military Planning and International Law](https://www.diplomacyandlaw.com/post/cuba-invasion-u-s-military-planning-and-international-law)
- [U.S. military lays groundwork for potential action around Cuba - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-groundwork-potential-action-cuba-trump/)
- [US military makes preparations for assault on Cuba within “90-120 days” - World Socialist Web Site](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/09/28/qkuv-s28.html)
- [2026 United States fuel blockade on Cuba - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Cuban_crisis)

## What this was built from

- **US strike on Cuba by December 31?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-cuba-by)
- **Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026)
- **Cuban regime falls in 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cuban-regime-falls-in-2026)