# Metamask failed to reach $1 billion FDV on day one

*Crypto. 59% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Opensea also missed a $500 million fully-diluted valuation on its first day.**

A wave of newly launched crypto projects fell short of modest fully-diluted valuation targets on their first trading day.

Metamask's fully-diluted valuation did not exceed $1 billion on day one. The $1 billion threshold remained unmet for Metamask after its inaugural trading day. Metamask failed to achieve a fully-diluted valuation above $1 billion on its first day.

Opensea's fully-diluted valuation stayed below $500 million after its first day. The $500 million benchmark was not reached by Opensea on day one. Opensea failed to surpass a $500 million fully-diluted valuation on its inaugural trading day.

Puffpaw's fully-diluted valuation remained under $200 million on its first day. The $200 million target was not met by Puffpaw after one day of trading. Puffpaw did not achieve a fully-diluted valuation above $200 million on day one.

Extended's fully-diluted valuation did not rise above $300 million on its first day. The $300 million threshold was unmet for Extended after its debut trading day. Extended failed to reach a fully-diluted valuation exceeding $300 million on day one.

## Analysis

Investors looking at launch-day metrics may treat hype-driven price expectations with caution.

For project teams, missing such thresholds may complicate fundraising efforts and could diminish perceived credibility among potential partners. Without the anticipated valuation, token-based incentives and ecosystem development may face tighter constraints.

## What this was built from

- **Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?**: No, 83%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?**: No, 72%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 95%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?**: No, 59%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?**: No, 76%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/standx-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?**: No, 81%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?**: No, 77%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?**: No, 85%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ink-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/ink-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)