# S&P 500 outperformed Bitcoin and Gold in 2026

*Crypto. 58% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Bitcoin stayed above $45,000 and did not set a new record, and the S&P 500 led gains.**

In 2026 the S&P 500 posted higher returns than both Bitcoin and Gold Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, failed to set a new all-time high during the year. Its price also never fell to the $45,000 level.

Throughout the twelve months Bitcoin's price stayed above $45,000. Data showed no dip to that threshold at any point.

The equity index's gain outpaced the returns generated by Bitcoin. Gold's performance also lagged behind the S&P 500. Thus the traditional benchmark delivered the strongest result among the three assets.

Bitcoin stayed above $45,000 but never achieved a new high. Investors therefore saw more growth from the S&P 500 than from digital or precious-metal assets.

## Analysis

Bitcoin's price staying above $45,000 without reaching a fresh all-time high indicates a level of price stability but also a lack of upward momentum, which may have tempered enthusiasm among speculative participants and limited inflows from risk-seeking capital.

## What this was built from

- **Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026**: S&P 500, 58%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026)
- **Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-all-time-high-by)
- **Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?**: No, 92%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027)