# Metamask, Puffpaw and Extended missed high FDV targets

*Science. 62% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Metamask stayed below $1 billion and Puffpaw remained under $300 million.**

On Friday 1 January, three newly launched crypto projects were evaluated one day after their debut. Metamask, Puffpaw and Extended each had a fully diluted valuation measured against high benchmarks. None of the three surpassed the benchmarks, with Metamask staying below $1 billion, Puffpaw below $300 million and Extended below $800 million.

Metamask's valuation was calculated one day after the platform's launch. The fully diluted valuation remained under the $1 billion threshold.

Puffpaw's valuation was calculated one day after the platform's launch. The fully diluted valuation remained under the $300 million threshold.

Extended's valuation was calculated one day after the platform's launch.

## Analysis

Investors appear to be applying more stringent criteria when pricing nascent crypto offerings, limiting the size of initial valuations.

Puffpaw's modest valuation reflects similar restraint for newer entrants, while Extended's sub-$800 million figure shows that even projects aiming at higher benchmarks encounter cautious pricing.

The pattern points to a broader environment where new crypto initiatives must demonstrate clear utility or differentiated value propositions to attract larger funding.

## What this was built from

- **Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?**: Yes, 62%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/opensea-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?**: No, 97%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/metamask-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?**: No, 93%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)
- **Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?**: No, 89%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/extended-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch)