# Xavier Becerra elected governor of California

*Politics. 65% certain. Thursday, 31 December 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The state also rejected a Billionaire wealth tax and Kamala Harris declined a gubernatorial bid.**

On Tuesday 3 November, Xavier Becerra was elected governor of California, defeating Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan. The same ballot saw voters reject a proposed one-time Billionaire wealth tax. Earlier, on Friday 6 November, Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not seek the governorship. On Thursday 31 December, Los Angeles re-elected Mayor Karen Bass.

He secured the governorship over three notable opponents, including Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan. The election concluded on Tuesday 3 November, finalizing the statewide vote.

The Billionaire wealth-tax initiative aimed to impose a one-time levy on the ultra-rich. Voters turned it down on the November 3 ballot, preventing it from becoming law. The defeat reflected the measure's failure to attract sufficient support.

Vice President Kamala Harris decided against entering the gubernatorial race, a decision reported on Friday 6 November. Her choice left the Democratic field open for other candidates. Harris remained in her national office following the announcement.

Karen Bass won re-election as mayor of Los Angeles on Thursday 31 December. She defeated challenger Nithya Raman to retain the city's top office. Bass's victory ensures continuity in the municipal administration.

## Analysis

Becerra's election gives the Democratic Party control of California's executive branch, allowing the governor to shape policy agendas on issues such as climate, health and education. Without detailed knowledge of his policy platform, the precise direction remains uncertain, but the win consolidates party influence in the state.

The rejection of the Billionaire wealth tax indicates that California voters were not persuaded by a one-time levy on high-net-worth individuals.

Bass's re-election maintains continuity in Los Angeles governance, but the combined results leave open questions about future intra-party dynamics and policy priorities.

## What this was built from

- **California Governor Election Winner**: Xavier Becerra, 93%; settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (polymarket, futuur). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026)
- **Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?**: No, 99%; settles Friday, 6 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-kamala-harris-run-for-governor)
- **Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?**: No, 68%; settles Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026)
- **Los Angeles Mayoral Election**: Karen Bass, 65%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117)