# Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo governorship

*Politics. 57% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Ciro Gomes won Ceará and governors were also chosen in six other states.**

On Sunday 4 October and Monday 5 October voters chose new governors in seven key Brazilian states. Tarcísio de Freitas was elected in São Paulo, Jorginho Mello in Santa Catarina, Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, Jerônimo Rodrigues in Bahia, and Ciro Gomes in Ceará. On Monday Sergio Moro won in Paraná and Eduardo Paes secured Rio de Janeiro, completing the sweep.

The São Paulo race concluded with Tarcísio de Freitas defeating Fernando Haddad, Kim Kataguiri and Erika Hilton. In Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello prevailed over Marcelo Brigadeiro, João Rodrigues and Adriano Silva.

Minas Gerais elected Cleitinho Azevedo, who outpaced Patrus Ananias, Mateus Simões and Alexandre Kalil. In Bahia, Jerônimo Rodrigues won against ACM Neto, Bruno Soares Reis and Rui Costa.

Ceará's governorship went to Ciro Gomes, beating Elmano de Freitas, Camilo Santana and Roberto Cláudio. The Paraná ballot, counted on Monday, returned Sergio Moro as governor over Sandro Alex, Requião Filho and Luiz França. These results added to the regional realignment.

Rio de Janeiro's election, also decided on Monday, installed Eduardo Paes ahead of Douglas Ruas, Colonel Busnello and Rafa Luz.

## Analysis

The simultaneous selection of governors in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Ceará, Santa Catarina, and Paraná creates a new alignment of regional executives. With leaders from different political backgrounds now holding office, coordination on federal initiatives may become more complex, as each governor brings distinct priorities to the table.

Their administrations are likely to wield considerable weight in negotiations with the federal government, potentially influencing budget allocations and infrastructure projects.

The northeast sees Ciro Gomes assuming the Ceará governorship, while the south gains Jorginho Mello in Santa Catarina. These changes could affect regional blocs that traditionally align on economic and social policies, altering the balance of support for national legislation.

Uncertainty remains around how the new governors will cooperate or compete on issues such as public security, environmental regulation, and fiscal policy.

## What this was built from

- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 77%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner**: Cleitinho Azevedo, 81%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
- **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Tarcísio de Freitas, 98%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)
- **Ceará Governor Election Winner**: Ciro Gomes, 57%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/cear-governor-election-winner)
- **Paraná Governor Election Winner**: Sergio Moro, 82%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343)
- **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: Jerônimo Rodrigues, 60%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)
- **Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner **: Jorginho Mello, 95%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-governor-election-winner-20260609164309743)