# Anthropic topped AI model performance by end of 2026

*Science. 48% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Google led in November 2026 while OpenAI remained unacquired and claimed no AGI.**

Google occupied the top spot in AI model performance during the latter half of 2025. By the close of 2026 Anthropic had taken the lead, delivering the strongest model of the year. OpenAI neither claimed an artificial general intelligence breakthrough nor announced a new Millennium Prize solution, and it stayed independent through the period.

On 1 December 2026, assessments placed Google's model as the best available at the end of November. The evaluation considered benchmark scores across a range of tasks and confirmed Google's continued dominance at that point. This status preceded the shift observed later in the year.

By 31 December 2026, Anthropic's model was judged the strongest of the year. The final review incorporated the same benchmarks used earlier and showed Anthropic surpassing its rivals.

OpenAI did not announce the achievement of artificial general intelligence before 2027. The company also failed to present a new solution to any Millennium Prize problem by the end of 2026. These outcomes contrasted with expectations for a breakthrough from the firm.

OpenAI remained unacquired as of 1 January 2027. No merger or purchase involving the company was completed before that date. The firm continued operating as an independent entity.

## Analysis

Anthropic's ascent to the top of AI model rankings indicates a shift in research leadership that could reshape competitive dynamics among major labs. The move suggests that Anthropic's recent investments in scaling and alignment are yielding measurable performance gains, potentially attracting talent and partnership opportunities.

The shortfall may affect its reputation as a frontier innovator and could influence the expectations of investors and collaborators who have tracked its progress closely.

Without a merger or acquisition, the company retains full control over its research agenda but also bears the full burden of funding and scaling its operations amid intensifying competition.

The overall picture leaves several uncertainties.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [List of 27 Acquisitions by OpenAI (Oct 2026) - Tracxn](https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitions-by-openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg)
- [OpenAI in talks for $30B at $1.4T, IPO delayed to 2027 | AI Weekly](https://aiweekly.co/alerts/openai-in-talks-for-30b-at-14t-ipo-delayed-to-2027)
- [OpenAI - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI)
- [OpenAI IPO Date: Investor Timeline, Valuation and Expectations](https://smartasset.com/investing/openai-ipo-date-investor-timeline-valuation-and-expectations)

## What this was built from

- **Which company has the best AI model end of November?**: Google, 48%; settles Tuesday, 1 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november)
- **Which company has best AI model end of 2026?**: Anthropic, 49%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026)
- **OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?**: No, 92%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-2027)
- **Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?**: No, 99%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-be-acquired-before-2027)
- **Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?**: No, 85%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by)