# 2026 became hottest year on record

*Weather|Science. 61% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Oil prices failed to set a new record and Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted.**

During the same year, Crude Oil prices stayed below the previous all-time peak. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz did not return to normal levels.

Their analysis placed 2026 at the top of the global temperature series. The year surpassed the prior record.

Prices rose and fell with typical seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, they never eclipsed the historic high set in earlier years.

Vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz were monitored by maritime authorities. Data showed that the flow of tankers remained reduced compared with pre-disruption levels. By the end of December, traffic had not recovered to normal volumes.

## Analysis

The confirmation that 2026 topped the global temperature record reinforces the long-term warming trend observed by scientists, adding pressure on governments and industries to accelerate mitigation efforts. It also provides a clear benchmark for future climate assessments, indicating that each successive year can set a new high if emissions are not curbed.

The absence of a new all-time high in Crude-Oil prices despite the extreme heat suggests that demand drivers were not strongly linked to temperature spikes this year.

Continued disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz points to persistent geopolitical or security challenges that can affect global Oil logistics. Persistent bottlenecks in this chokepoint can influence shipping costs and supply chain reliability, even when price levels remain stable.

## What this was built from

- **Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?**: 1, 61%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record)
- **Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?**: No, 90%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?**: No, 86%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31)