# Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined

*Culture. 70% certain. Saturday, 10 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Community film fell short of a 75 Metacritic rating and Drake did not release a September album.**

Spider-Man 4 generated more domestic box-office revenue than Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined through September 2026. The Community movie failed to reach a 75-point Metacritic score. Drake did not issue a new album by the end of September.

The box-office comparison tracked domestic earnings up to the end of September. On Friday 2 October, the data confirmed Spider-Man 4 had surpassed the combined totals of the two other releases. The outcome placed the superhero sequel ahead of both the animated sequel and the horror entry for that period.

Metacritic aggregates critic reviews to assign a numeric rating. On Saturday 10 October, the Community film recorded a score below the 75-point benchmark. The result meant the adaptation did not achieve the strong critical reception that a 75 rating would indicate.

Speculation had surrounded a possible Drake album before September ended. On Thursday 1 October, the calendar showed no album had appeared by September 30. Consequently, Drake remained without a fresh release through the month.

## Analysis

Spider-Man 4's box-office lead over Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 suggests the superhero franchise continues to dominate domestic earnings, reinforcing studios' focus on similar high-budget sequels.

The Community film's sub-75 Metacritic rating may temper enthusiasm for translating popular TV series into movies, as lower critical scores can affect audience expectations and future investment decisions.

Drake's absence of a September album leaves a gap in his release schedule, which could shift attention to other artists or prompt the rapper to explore alternative distribution methods later in the year.

## What this was built from

- **Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?**: Yes, 99%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/AdamBraff/through-september-2026-will-spiderm)
- **Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?**: No, 70%; settles Saturday, 10 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-community-movie-get-a-75-o)
- **Will Drake release a new album by September 30?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-drake-release-a-new-album-by)