# 2026 was the hottest year on record

*Weather. 78% certain. Friday, 1 January 2027*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Crude Oil prices stayed below record levels and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained open.**

During the same year, Crude Oil prices did not climb to a new all-time high. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait also remained open through the end of the year.

Global temperature analyses placed 2026 at the top of the historical series, surpassing all previous years. The ranking was finalized on 31 December, confirming its position as the hottest year on record. No other year matched its average temperature.

The price trajectory remained below that benchmark throughout the year.

Maritime reports indicated that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stayed fully operational through 2026. No effective closure was recorded by the end of the year. Shipping lanes through the Strait continued to function without interruption.

## Analysis

The confirmation that 2026 topped the temperature record reinforces concerns about accelerating climate change and its broad environmental impacts. It adds to a growing body of evidence that global warming is persisting despite short-term variability. Policymakers may face heightened pressure to address emissions and adaptation measures.

Supply factors, inventory levels, or demand shifts may have counterbalanced any heat-related demand spikes.

Keeping the Bab el-Mandeb Strait open preserved a vital maritime corridor for Oil, grain, and container traffic. The absence of an effective closure averted the risk of supply chain bottlenecks that could have amplified price pressures. Nevertheless, the Strait's strategic importance means any future disruption could quickly affect global trade flows.

## What this was built from

- **Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?**: 1, 78%; settles Thursday, 31 December 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record)
- **Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?**: No, 87%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?**: No, 84%; settles Friday, 1 January 2027 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)